Saturday, October 1, 2011

The Fall of Sancte Sarah of Wasilla

Over at the conservative group blog Red State, Erick Erickson had a hilarious "vigil" for the passing of Sarah Palin's original "drop-dead" date for declaring for President.  In her previous statements, she swore she would have a decision made by the end of September.  That of course came and went without a declaration for President, confirming in the minds of many what those like myself have known for the past two years:  she wasn't going to run for President. 

Some of Palin's supporters will viciously dispute that.  They are telling us that the latest evidence against her run is actually evidence for it.  You see, she said she would make a decision by the end of September.  She never said she would make an announcement.  That is a deadline imposed by the goshdarn lamestream media.  Shoot, this is an unconventional campaign, you hear?

I really don't want this post to be poking fun at the Palinistas.  Not the fans of Governor Palin.  I'm talking the dedicated cultists of the religion of Sarah Palin, who parse her every word for deeper meaning, dedicate shrines online to her, and the like.  They will actually need our help and tolerance when they are welcomed back into the fold.  They will need to be "deprogrammed" just like somebody who leaves (or is forcibly removed from) a cult.  I wish to talk instead about her rise and fall, and what I think she will do next.

While it's tough to remember, Sarah Palin came to fame primarily as a moderate governor with a hint of populism.  She wasn't that invested in the culture wars, or even full blown Reagan style conservatism.  She was primarily a good governance conservative.  She battled the rampant corruption in Alaska's oil industry, and in Alaska's politics.  In a state that gets more federal dollars than anyone, combined with massive oil investment, both parties are thoroughly corrupt.  Palin attacked both indiscriminately.  She did so in a way that proved the young former beauty queen possessed incredible natural political skills.

Through this prism, she was a natural for "Straight Talker" John McCain, who was always obsessed with rooting out corruption or even the potential for it.  (Think McCain Feingold, in which McCain favored suppressing the first amendment because somewhere, somehow, someone might get corrupted by a quarter during elections.)  While not big into the culture war, she had natural pro-life bona fides with her children.  As Republicans were pushing forward energy policy and reform, it made natural sense to tap the governor of one of the richest energy regions in the world.

Seeing all these reasons, the media could not stand to see her succeed.  They launched a smear campaign the likes of which we haven't seen since Jefferson/Adams in 1800, by far the dirtiest campaign in American history.  Showing off her natural political genius, she took it in stride.  She delivered a speech at the Republican National Convention portraying herself as an everyday American, who remained optimistic about this country in spite of all the forces aligned against herself, which symbolized the forces arrayed against this country.

Yet fame went to her head.  Now being the new "it" girl in the media, she had to look the part.  She was buying wardrobes in one day that were more expensive than all the clothes combined she had worn up until that point.  She appeared on all the conservative media such as Rush where she was outright worshipped.  The small town girl from Wasilla was truly sitting on top of the world.

Now we reach the point where the wheels begin to fall off.  Eventually, she had to face something other than Sean Hannity, who every now and then would grumble a question in between kissing her feet.  So she went to someone viewed as a lightweight in Katie Couric.  For the most part, Couric was, is, and always will be a lightweight, suited more to human interest stories on the Today show.  Yet even her ardent fans recognized this interview was a massive disaster for Palin.  So used to the worshipful treatment, Governor Palin got it in her head that her failure was the result of the "lamestream media", rather than the fact she flat out had an awful performance. 

After this debacle, she launched a full throttled attack on the bias of the media.  Every conservative says it, but few say it like she said it.  In the mind of her fans, this only confirmed she was the one.  Many others saw someone who clearly wasn't ready for the big stage of presidential politics.  As the McCain campaign continued imploding, Palin went right along with it.  At one speech right before the election, her transformation into populist culture warrior was complete.  She spoke of her joy to be speaking with people from the "real America", that being, those who approved of her.  Those who supported Barack Obama?  They weren't "real Americans."  This was red meat pandering at its worst.

After the elections, she went back to being Governor of Alaska, and continued implementing reforms.  She also decided to begin utilizing social media to give herself an added voice.  Love it or hate it, she was leader of the Republican Party at this point.  As the conservatives began to wake from their slumber and combat President Obama, she was viewed as their champion, and no doubt their presidential nominee in 2012.  By that time, she would have been a highly successful governor in the middle of her second term.

Then, out of nowhere and taking everyone completely by surprise, she resigned as governor.  Her official reason was that the constant lawsuits the left were filing against her (all of them frivolous indeed, as they have all been dismissed) were driving her bankrupt, and made it impossible for her to conduct business as Alaska's governor.  I didn't buy it, but I sympathized with her.  Yet I also said this ended her chance at becoming President.  You can't walk away from being President because you find it unpleasant.  Now in her new life, she announced she would be taking her case for "common sense conservative" solutions to the masses out of a desire to raise up conservatives.

Some of us, being cynical, figured she really just wanted to make mad cash.  The Palinistas were furious at those who said that.  Then Palin signed a massive book deal and an even larger contract with Fox News.  If she was worried about going broke, she would never have to worry again.

During this time, speculation about her presidential ambitions continued to soar.  While she lost some of her fans, most Republicans were still firmly in her corner.  The new Tea Party seemed a natural vehicle to further her ambitions, and so she began reaching out.  Long shots like Nikki Haley, Marco Rubio and Rand Paul suddenly became the Republican nominees for their respective offices, and they owed a lot of that to Palin. 

For all these picks, she then reminded people why many questioned her previous judgement.  In backing Christine O'Donnell for the Senate in Delaware over Mike Castle (a moderate Republican who was a certain win), many scratched their heads.  Everybody outside of O'Donnell herself realized she had a chance below zero of winning the general election.  While she is loathe to admit it now, Palin stumped hard for O'Donnell.  Come election time, she was crushed.  The polls closed at 8, the race was called for the Democrat at 8:01.  Along with some questionable choices elsewhere, they cost Republicans a chance to take the Senate.  Even worse, her hand picked candidate for the Senate seat in Alaska lost..... to a write in candidate.  That write-in candidate was also a Murkowski, her sworn enemies in Alaska.  Forget being able to carry swing states, she couldn't even carry influence in her own state.

Yet after this, people were still convinced she would run, and Palin started boosting her image nationwide.  She released her second book which was an instant bestseller.  She then decided that the way to increase her profile..... was to start her own reality television show.  While the show generated a ton of buzz the first week, it then proceeded to be an absolute ratings bomb afterwards, and was cancelled after one season.  She didn't even try to hide that the show was a piece of political propaganda, and a very bad one at that.  The sensible thing at this point would've been to announce you were not running for President, and spend the next few years doing serious buildup of your credentials.

Yet Palin could not do this.  Other political stars started rising.  Michele Bachmann supplanted her as the queen of rage.  Chris Christie moved ahead of her in manipulating social media to increase his stardom.  Mitt Romney (who never stopped running for President) became the front runner.  Yet if she announced her intention not to run, her influence would crash.  She was on Fox News because people believed she would run for President one day.  She continued to stoke the flames of that fire.

Then events moved beyond her control.  In a surprise move, her longtime ally Rick Perry announced his candidacy for President, without so much as even a phone call beforehand.  Here was somebody who had Palin's audience firmly in his corner, and was the highly successful four term governor of the largest state of the "mainland" to boot.  No doubt Palin felt a personal betrayal.  Since Obama won the presidency, the Republican nomination was viewed as hers by right, yet for the reasons listed above, she could still not enter.

At this point, Palin decided to begin sniping at Perry and the other candidates, while continuing to be coy about running for President.  Some viewed it as paving the way for a Presidential run.  Others viewed it the desperation of a very petty woman, enraged that she was no longer the most popular person in school.  Through Fox News, she then announced to the world that the Presidency really was too small for her.  The title of President wasn't really worth it after all, since she could do so much more without it.  Yet this doesn't mean she won't run of course!  She is still "deciding" that, as long as the cameras keep showing up.

This brings us to now.  She has been saying for over a year that September 2011 was the time everyone, herself included, needed to get in the game.  As that deadline came, she then stated that she wasn't going to give an answer.  If you've lost Red State, you've lost the Tea Party type Republicans.  What will she do now?  A few options present itself:

1.)  Run for President and get absolutely crushed in the primaries.  There is almost no time to set up a national organization to compete. Even with such an organization, she has the backing comparable to Ron Paul.  Sure, she has fans, but never enough to win the nomination, with 70% of Republicans praying she doesn't run.

2.)  Announce she won't run for President.  After spending 3 years proclaiming she has the "fire in the belly" and could easily beat Obama, she will become the laughingstock of American politics.  Even amongst her worshippers, her status as a tough "mama grizzly" will be forever tarnished.

3.)  Show up to the PPV Romney/Perry no disqualification steel cage match.  Walk down to ringside with a steel chair.  Stand next to Perry, and then turn and smash him with the chair.  Drop the chair, walk up to Romney, and embrace him.  Even critics of Palin do not believe she could possibly endorse Romney.  Do not be so certain.  All politicians have egos.  Palin's knows no bounds.  She feels personally betrayed by Perry.  As a result, she will do anything, anything, to prevent a Perry win.  By this point her endorsement will be toxic to anyone else.  Bachmann is irrelevant.  Perry doesn't need her endorsement, nor does Cain.  They will have the Tea Party behind them.  Yet Romney needs someone who is perceived to be a bona fides conservative.  She will need a new audience by now, and a promise of a cabinet position, or at least a refusal to snipe at her from the establishment candidate will no doubt help.  Besides, having the backing of a prominent member of the establishment will help, once she resumes the perpetual presidential aspirations in 2016 and beyond.  Many of her worshippers will remain, and no doubt find some way to justify it.

Either way, the story of Sancte Sarah of Wasilla is ultimately a tragic tale.  It is the tale of a rising star unjustly persecuted, who ended becoming more unhinged than her fiercest persecutors imagined.  Her tale is ultimately a cautionary one:  places not your faith in politicians, for they are certain to disappoint you.