What the Chris Christie Buzz Tells Us

Unless you've been living under a rock lately in Republican politics, several of the establishment and conservative intelligentsia are excited about a possible candidacy of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.  Ann Coulter has offered to have his babies.  Bill Kristol wrote something that has to be a spoof, otherwise he deserves to be rightly accused of idolatry.  The New York Post today reports that apparently Henry Kissinger and the entire Bush dynasty have urged him to run.

Let me throw some cold water on them and anyone else considering it:  Chris Christie will not run for president.  Oh sure, he might "think" about the decision, if only to get some great free media attention.  Yet his earlier decision will stand.  He's an inexperienced half-term governor.  He has done some great things in New Jersey as a Republican, when you grade on a curve.  A "New Jersey Republican" is not a Republican in any particular sense of the term as most conservatives understand it.

Faced with regional problems, Chris Christie responded to the financial crisis in his state as a result of massive unfunded pension/heatlh care liabilities of public sector employees.  On the federal level this isn't really a problem for a variety of reasons.  (Number one being their inability to collectively bargain on many things.)  You get away from those things, and you have a typical Northeastern Republican who lives in a state where the governor's office has something just short of divine power.  This typical Northeastern Republican makes George W. Bush look like Tom Tancredo on immigration.  He backs affirmative action and gun control. Global warming?  Think Chris Christie would stop cap and trade?  There is reason to doubt it.

I say this as a fan of Chris Christie.  He's accomplished things in deep blue New Jersey none of us ever thought possible.  Which is all the more reason for him to stay there and continue accomplishing it.  If he got in the race, he would come under immediate fire for these positions from Santorum and Bachmann, the demagogue twins who have absolutely nothing to lose and are still in the race simply to feed their own egos.  (Hush my socially conservative Catholic brethren, anyone who has actually looked at the facts on the issues in regards to Santorum can come to no other conclusion.)

Far more interesting is what the buzz about Christie says about other people.  Mainly Mitt Romney.  He is learning that establishment love is a fickle thing.  They care about one thing and one thing only, and that is winning.  If there is a doubt that you can win, they will turn on you.  Yet why would I claim that this shows Romney's weakness, given his weakening of Rick Perry in the polls?

The simple reason is that Perry is on the ropes, but he wasn't knocked out.  In order to place Perry on the ropes, Romney had to demagogue hard on Social Security and immigration.  Everyone knows he isn't Tom Tancredo.  As far as Social Security, it is one thing to not like the fiery rhetoric Rick Perry utilized, or to demand he stop being coy and actually put forth a realistic plan for how to deal with the mess.  It is quite another to run to Obama's left on the issue.  Romney's explicit strategy was to scare the hell out of seniors.  People will start to remember that, and will turn on Romney.  Even if he wins the nomination (a 50/50 chance), he will in a best case scenario have the same kind of relationship John McCain had with the Republican base.  While that might be enough, don't count on it.

Seeing this, the powers that be are looking to get rid of their Romney problem.  Right or wrong, they feel that Rick Perry cannot win.  Yet they also realize that long-term, Mitt Romney is terribly flawed.  While he could still beat Obama without the base, they do not want to take their chances.  Better to go to Chris Christie.  He is someone who is for the most part a moderate Republican, but he doesn't have the image of one willing to change any position if it means an extra half percent in the polls.  He also has the added bonus of not having the undying hatred of the base.  The base might not be excited by a Christie presidency, yet they aren't cold to it.

The establishment GOP is forgetting something:  Mitt Romney has no desire to walk away from this quietly.  Mitt Romney's father was destined to be president until he had something akin to a mental breakdown.  The younger Romney feels as if the presidency should belong to his family.  Rather than face defeat in re-election for governor in 2008, he began running for President in 2006.  When he managed to lose to Mike Huckabee (let that sink in), he "suspended" his campaign until January 20, 2009.  For over 5 years, Romney has ran for President, changing his message like a girl changes shoes.  He will fight Chris Christie with every ounce of strength he has.  Who benefits from this?  Rick Perry, and Rick Perry alone.  With a divided front against him, he is able to pick up the pieces.  That is why Chris Christie will not run.

If Romney is paying attention, there is much to learn about this recent turn of events.  He is far from finished.  Yet he will not be able to count on reliable establishment support.  If he wants to win, he needs to form an alliance with someone conservative yet who isn't backing Perry.  Sarah Palin or Jim Demint, you have Mitt Romney on line one.