Barrack the Invincible?

            When you listen to the political landscape today, you hear about how “unbeatable” Barrack Obama is.  I can understand why the left and Obama are doing this.  They want to make the appearance so terrifying nobody dare oppose him.  What I don’t understand is why anyone else would buy these delusions.

            First, let’s look at the Republican field.  Let us forget about Herman Cain, Michelle Bachmann, and Ron Paul.  They aren’t going to win, and won’t be around.  So forget about it.  They are either too inexperienced, too gaffe prone, too insane, or a combination of all three.  Sarah Palin isn’t running for President, and I’ve been saying that forever.  Nothing has changed.

            This leaves Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, John Huntsman (an odd pick but I think he will do better than the clowns above), and maybe a spoiler like Rick Perry.  All were (or are) Governors.  All with successful track records in their states.  Two of them have had success in blue states.  Yes, Romney has a problem with Romneycare.  It is for that reason I oppose him.  Yet I’m not going to think that this is the only weapon we have in our arsenal for 2012.  In short, all these candidates could beat Obama, since there is some serious cross-over appeal.

            Then let us look at Obama’s current standing in the polls and influence.  His polling goes back and forth between 45 and 50 percent.  Heading into re-election, you do not want to be lower than 50%. If he wants to reach that vaunted billionaire campaign spot, he had better get moving.  (His current fundraising numbers are way below that clip.) This will be a referendum on Obama, just as the 2010 elections were.  There are only so many voices you can convince.  His numbers amongst those not affiliated with either party (the people he needs), those numbers are downright dreadful.  He faces an extremely energetic Republican Party, especially in states where there are Senate elections.  Republicans are poised to take the Senate.  (Even now it is essentially a fait accompli Republicans will take the Senate.)  In order to win, he will need a united party.

            Yet right now, the Democrats are nowhere close to united.  On the recent call to continue borrowing as usual without thinking about how to manage the debt/pay it off, House Democrats split in voting alongside every Republican in saying no.  Those such as Senator Ben Nelson will almost certainly have leave to prove back home to their red-state citizens that they will “stand up” to Obama.  President Obama has tried three times in rolling out a budget.  His recent attempt at doing so was defeated in the Senate 97-0.  For all the controversy, Paul Ryan’s plan received 40 votes (and several of the no’s would have been a yes had they been required.)

            Harry Reid has literally given up on attempting producing a budget, no matter what.  He understands such a budget debate would showcase how ruptured the party really is.  The wounds that first began surfacing in 2004 would be clear for all to see:  The Democratic Party, when not united by Bush-hatred, is coming apart at the seams.  Bush has been out of office 3 years now.  They are hoping, as the majority party, to be the ones who engage in demonizing the minority and using obstructionist tactics to block votes.  In short, despite having the advantage in the Senate and the Presidency, the Democrats are acting as the minority party.

            If the Senate and White House hope to stay in Democratic hands, they will eventually have to put forth a budget.  Yet given the deep divisions in the Democratic Party right now (witness the spat between normally budget hawkish Kent Conrad and Socialist Bernie Sanders), there can be no budget.  Obama will be the head of the party that by election time has not produced a budget in three out of four years of his presidency.  The campaign ad writes itself.

            Hard reality number two is the debt ceiling.  We aren’t going to default on our debt, and we have to raise the debt ceiling.  Yet we also cannot raise the debt ceiling without having a plan in place to seriously address the out of control spending in Washington.  Just like with the extension of the current tax rates for 100% of Americans during the winter of 2010, Obama is going to have to put through real spending reforms in exchange for raising the debt ceiling.  Reforms his party for the most part still stresses are pointless to do.

             Hard reality number three is on energy policy.  People remember high gas prices more than anything else.  Remember back in 2000 when Republicans were calling for increased oil drilling?  We said that it might not make a difference for 10 years, but once that time came, we would find ourselves in a position to handle then outrageous two dollar a gallon gasoline.  We haven’t done much of anything in regards to oil production.  Indeed, Obama has suspended it in many key areas.  Gas prices are high and will most likely remain over three dollars by the time November 2012 comes.  (This is to say nothing of inflation lurking around the corner.)  People pay attention to gas prices.

            Then there are the economic numbers.  This is the most devastating reality of all for the Obama administration.  The recent numbers are, how do I put this nicely, awful.  We essentially created no new jobs last month, and unemployment rose.  It would have risen even higher, had people not dropped out of the labor force altogether.  (Those numbers are the lowest in 40 years!)  Everyone is beginning to come to a realization:  we aren’t going to experience a “double dip” recession.  We have never really left the recession.  We didn’t create jobs.  We simply slowed the rate at which we lay people off.  The stock markets are high only because of the Fed injecting a massive amount of cash into the economy.  (Which everyone realizes will have to end one day.)  Despite all the manipulation of the housing market by the government, it still looks atrocious.  President Obama was elected to “fix the mess.”  By what empirical standard was anything fixed?

            One looks at all these facts and indicators, and a question comes to mind:  How is Barrack Obama “certain” to win re-election?